Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 22.97% in May 2025, marking the second consecutive month of decline, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest figure reflects a continued easing of price pressures, down from 23.71% recorded in April 2025.

The NBS data shows that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 10.98% lower than the rate recorded in May 2024, which stood at 33.95%.

The data also show that the headline inflation rate on a year-on-year basis “decreased in May 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., May 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100,” the NBS stated.

Also, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.53%, which was 0.33% lower than the rate recorded in April 2025, which was 1.86%, according to NBS.

This means that in May 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level is lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in April 2025, NBS said.

Urban vs Rural inflation trends

The NBS report shows that Nigeria’s urban inflation rate stood at 23.14% year-on-year in May 2025, representing a 13.20 percentage point decline from the 36.34% recorded in May 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose to 1.40% in May 2025, up by 0.22 percentage points compared to 1.18% in April 2025. The 12-month average urban inflation rate was 29.30% in May 2025, which is 1.77 percentage points lower than the 31.07% reported in May 2024, the NBS stated.

For rural inflation, the year-on-year rate stood at 22.70% in May 2025, down by 9.12 percentage points from 31.82% in May 2024. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation dropped to 1.83% in May 2025, a sharp decline of 1.72 percentage points from 3.56% in April 2025. The 12-month average rural inflation rate was 25.56%, down from 27.27% in May 2024 — a 1.71 percentage point decrease.

Food inflation

The food inflation rate in May 2025 stood at 21.14% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 19.52 percentage points from the 40.66% recorded in May 2024. This sharp decline is largely attributed to the recent change in the base year used for calculating inflation.

• On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose slightly to 2.19% in May 2025, up by 0.12 percentage points from 2.06% in April 2025.
• The increase is linked to slower reductions in the average prices of key staples such as yam, ogbono (avenger/apon), cassava tuber, maize flour, fresh pepper, sweet potatoes, among others.

The 12-month average food inflation rate for the period ending May 2025 was 29.80%, representing a 4.26 percentage point decline compared to the 34.06% recorded in May 2024.

Core inflation

The Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 22.28% in May 2025. This shows a decrease from April 2025 were core inflation rate stood at 23.39% on a year-on-year basis.

The NBS data shows that core inflation declined by 4.76% when compared to the 27.04% recorded in May 2024.

What analysts said

In an earlier report published by Nairametrics, experts predicted the easing of the inflation rate. Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu, predicts headline inflation will ease further in May, reflecting stability in the naira, which appreciated in the NAFEM window.

Also, Managing Director at Utica Capital Ltd, Mr. Kanabe Ayegbeni, echoing this sentiment, noted that “the inflationary trends in essential goods and services during May were quite stable,” a development he attributes to the effectiveness of ongoing government policies that have brought some macroeconomic stability.

Key drivers of May 2025 inflation

According to Nairametrics Research, some of the key drivers of May 2025 inflation include:

Exchange rate stability: The naira recorded a slight appreciation in the NAFEM window during May 2025, strengthening by approximately 1.03% to N1,585.50/$ in the month. This marginal gain helped reduce the cost of imported goods, especially essential commodities like food, fuel additives, and industrial inputs.

Fuel price cut: Reduced fuel prices translate to lower transportation and logistics costs for goods across the country. This, in turn, helps businesses cut operating expenses (OPEX), making room for stable or lower pricing of final products and supporting household consumption by limiting inflationary pass-through.

Food price movements: In urban markets like Lagos and Abuja, there were modest reductions in the prices of essential food items, partly due to improved supply and ongoing government interventions.

Insecurity & weather shocks: Heightened insecurity in key food-producing states, including parts of the Middle Belt and Northwest, continues to disrupt farming and food transport. Additionally, the early onset of flooding in some agrarian areas has started to affect crop output.